Stop Predicting, Start Inventing: How to Control Your Business Future

Constantly trying to predict the future of your industry or business can feel like a futile exercise. No one possesses the certainty to foresee what next week holds, let alone a year or five years down the line. As Yogi Berra famously quipped, “It’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future.” The inherent difficulty in accurately predicting future events is universally acknowledged. A success rate of fifty percent is considered outstanding, even among professional futurists, highlighting the high probability of being wrong. Businesses routinely employ tools that rely on predicting future outcomes, such as estimating future revenues, forecasting industry scenarios, and developing strategic plans. These tools, while intended to guide decision-making, often hinge on guesswork and can lead to flawed spending patterns. The problem with relying on predictions is that businesses develop ‘planned reactions’ to anticipated events instead of proactively shaping their own destiny. Evaluating success based on these potentially inaccurate predictions further compounds the issue, making it difficult to achieve desired goals. Instead of getting caught in the trap of reactive planning based on uncertain forecasts, businesses should focus on inventing their future. Declare a clear direction for your business and proactively take steps to capitalize on that direction. This approach allows businesses to move faster than the speed of change. By setting a course and committing to it, you might not arrive exactly where you initially intended, unexpected shifts might occur. However, you will undoubtedly progress further and come closer to your declared destination than if you had simply reacted to external forces without a clear vision. Declarations, predictions, and strategic plans serve as powerful tools for focusing attention and mobilizing efforts, far surpassing the effectiveness of random actions or aimless plodding. A boldly conceived and declared future injects energy and inspiration into every facet of your enterprise. The ‘shock of the new,’ as described by art historian Kenneth Clark, ignites excitement and motivation. By inventing the future, you can reshape the competitive landscape and trigger unprecedented changes. The future is malleable, shaped by our choices and actions. By defining what is possible, embracing the potential, and dedicating resources to achieving specific objectives, we can transform future possibilities into tangible realities. Instead of betting on uncertain predictions, focus on inventing your own future.